Early NFL lines often mislead, like when a team opens at -3 and drifts to -4.5...

https://emilysgreatjournals.quantlynix.com/posts/i-loved-a-favorite-at-2.5-but-now-it-s-5-what-should-i-do

Early NFL lines often mislead, like when a team opens at -3 and drifts to -4.5 by game time. Jumping in too soon means risking worse odds and less value